top of page

Dot com bubble - Is history about to repeat itself?

The dot com bubble peaked on March 10, 2000. Is history about to repeat itself?

The up tick rule rarely gets triggered even on big red days like March 5th. That's a clear sign short sellers have completely disappeared from the market. When the degen gamblers on max leverage try to exit their positions, it's going to be crickets all the way down.

Punching the biggest bully in the yard might seem cool in the movies, but when it comes to short selling I'd rather pick on the old, the weak, and the lame.

The stocks which have witnessed technical damage.

The ones showing poor relative strength to Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). The stocks with no obvious buyers on the way down.

My current watchlist, organized by market cap:

Apple (AAPL)

Buffet's selling, falling out of the Mag 7, and the failure of Apple Vision Pro, AAPL should see a trendline break soon.

Google (GOOG)

"Go woke, go broke"

Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom (AVGO) doesn't satisfy my criteria but VMware shareholders (Michael Dell and other insiders owned 40% of VMware) taking profits should see the stock drop. The lackluster response to earnings indicates this might already be underway.

Tesla (TSLA)

TSLA is now a consensus short, so it's all about finding a good entry.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

The rejection candle in AMD is tempting, but shorting here would be a YOLO trade. Setting a stop at a level the company has never traded at is discomforting.

Oracle (ORCL)

ORCL has a bizarre chart. One to watch.

Adobe (ADBE)

ADBE is no longer a part of the AI cool kids club.

Cisco (CSCO)

No rational investors left in this dot com darling CSCO

Intel (INTC)

M3 inside, Intel outside in a warehouse somewhere gathering dust.

PDD Holdings (PDD)

Having witnessed Temu grow exponentially, I'd not short PDD except as a quick trade. This is a stocking stuffer long.

Micron Technology (MU)

MU is a fundamental short - inventory problems, overvalued, etc. The rejection candle makes it tempting, but too high risk, especially given that insane relative strength.

Analog Devices (ADI)

ADI is relatively low volume, making it an ideal offset.

Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD)

"Never go against Nancy Pelosi's trades, son"

Workday (WDAY)

WDAY had nothing to do with AI, but went along for the ride.

Snowflake (SNOW)

The sudden retirement of the CEO made SNOW investors come to their senses.

Atlassian (TEAM)

Atlassian's TEAM products are industry standard, but the stock trades at a stiff valuation. Makes for a good offset in a short portfolio.

Microchip Technology (MHCP)

I like these setups because I can take bigger positions with close stops.

Block (SQ)

Another offset stock that also benefits from the bitcoin pump. Cathie Wood got this one right.

Datadog (DDOG)

DDOG trades at 808 TTM PE and 16 times forward sales. Neutral on this. (JD)

Wouldn't it be ironic if Chinese tech benefits from the fall of US tech? JD is an offset long.

Sea Ltd. (SE)

SE gap fill complete; almost perfect entry point.

Electronic Arts (EA)

This manic depressive chart of EA is the poster child for the irrationality that permeates tech investing.

ZScaler (ZS)

Tempting, but low float (insiders own 40%) and prone to a short squeeze.

MongoDB (MDB)

Gap fill to $295 incoming.

Other than Apple supplier Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), the rest are small cap names which I'll just keep to myself.

Good Trading!

Kashyap Sriram

bottom of page