Anyone can show you their winners. Here are two trades I got badly wrong, and why I published the losses the day I took them. I grew up playing chess, about sixty or seventy tournaments' worth. In chess, some mistakes are so bad there's no salvaging the game afterward. The technical term is a blunder. In April 2025, I told my subscribers I had made two blunders in the portfolio: NorAm Drilling, an illiquid small-cap onshore drilling stock, and EuroDry, an illiquid small-cap,

I bought a DRC gold explorer nobody wanted at 47 cents. Eleven months later, it was acquired for C$1.38. Here's the full story - including the part where I almost sold. Every November and December, Canadian and US investors dump their losers to book tax losses. Volume dries up, bids disappear, and good small-cap stocks go on sale for no fundamental reason. I build my watchlist all year and go shopping in tax-loss season. It's a seasonal edge that's too small and too illiquid

Introduction Every month, I publish a rollup containing the "best of" everything I have written over the period. As a global macro analyst and trader, I highlight and comment on the most significant news flow that comes my way. I also go live on YouTube very Friday at 10 am ET on 'The Holy Macro Show', where you can get your questions answered. However, the stock picks and complete portfolio are reserved for the premium newsletter. This month, I wrote up a Chinese large-cap t

"I think shrinking the [Fed] balance sheet is the wrong objective." - Fed governor Barr. With inflation through the roof, inflation expectations sky high, and the economy excluding AI in a recession, the Fed is printing money. But it's not QE anymore - the new name is RMP. Last week, Fed governor Michael Barr gave a speech defending Fed money printing. Inflation, as measured by CPI, is already higher than the Fed funds rate. The Fed is cutting rates. But that's not enough. As

Stocks Mentioned Phillips 66 (PSX), Vertex Energy (VTNR), CoreWeave (CRWV), Blue Owl (OWL), Stratasys (SSYS), DHT Holdings (DHT) Highlights Second order effects of the war Q1 2026 performance: +51% Nigeria - a surprise winner from the war Refiners lose money on hedging gone wrong Bitcoin is ready to explode Speaking of parabolas... BWET Goodbye, American dream Tops are an event, bottoms are a process SoftBank is a technical long When statistics fail Goodbye, dollar milkshake

This article presents my renewed Bitcoin buy recommendation after a long gap, covering key drivers, market conditions, risks, and my positioning approach. Unlock the full analysis for details.

Stocks Mentioned Apollo (APO), Exodus Movement (EXOD), SoftBank (9984) Highlights Mark-to-myth to mark down to zero Europe is running out of jet fuel Time to go risk off Exodus Movement Fundamentals A tough year for passive investors Is SoftBank attempting a bounce? Fed says private credit is contained March 05, 2026 Mark-to-myth to mark down to zero The cockroaches in private credit are coming into the light. Mark-to-myth accounting is being replaced with mark-to-market, lik

Stocks Mentioned Blue Owl (OWL), Nvidia (NVDA), Coreweave (CRWV), Oracle (ORCL), Meta (META) Highlights Trouble in Owl Land The Fed is worried about the private credit led AI bubble Rotate from crypto to commodities Never get emotional about a trade February 20, 2026 Trouble in Owl Land In November last year, Blue Owl tried to get rid of OBDC II by making the publicly traded OBDC acquire it. Investors balked at the deal's 20% hair cut and sent Blue Owl (OWL) shares plunging.

Stocks Mentioned Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE), Bitfarms (BITF), Coreweave (CRWV), Block (XYZ), Nvidia (NVDA) Highlights Average 2025 client performance CoreWeave Evidence of stagflation Political risk alert: Ghana Exploration stocks are the new crypto 25% allocation to gold? Don't be Toby Is Block the next GE Capital? January 03, 2026 Average 2025 client performance Data as per Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Hedge funds: 28.91% Individual investo

Stocks Mentioned Highlights AI Bubble about to burst Silver going parabolic Asset allocation drives returns December 06, 2025 AI Bubble about to burst "By 2030, technology executives will be faced with the challenge of deploying about $500 billion in capital expenditures and finding about $2 trillion in new revenue to profitably meet demand." The key word here is 'profitably'. Where will the $2 trillion in AI revenue come from? 3 years after the launch of ChatGPT, OpenAI has

Stocks Mentioned Meta (META), Google (GOOGL), Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Top Ships (TOPS), IREN ltd. (IREN) Highlights Gold is showing incredible strength Powell reveals his AI ignorance IREN Microsoft deal MSTR Ponzi - Now in Europe Paul Tudor Jones and Market timing Bond Investors prepare for Stagflation META: A case study in value destruction Bitcoin treasury company #Metaplanet has crashed and burned My Solana trade