Monthly rollup | March 2026
- Mar 31
- 2 min read
Stocks Mentioned Apollo (APO), Exodus Movement (EXOD), SoftBank (9984)
Highlights
March 05, 2026
Mark-to-myth to mark down to zero
The cockroaches in private credit are coming into the light.
Mark-to-myth accounting is being replaced with mark-to-market, likely not by choice but to avoid lawsuits.
March 10, 2026
Having churned and burned their US client base, Apollo (APO) now wants to prey on UK retirees.
Saving for retirement? Try semi-liquid private credit, where all assets are marked-to-myth until you attempt to cash out.
March 12, 2026
Europe is running out of jet fuel
Time to go risk off
The US dollar is rallying but treasuries aren't. Not even the 2 year.
This tells me investors are building cash reserves and flocking to the safety of the US financial system.
This isn't the environment for risk taking. Focus on long-term trends, ignore the news-driven moves.
March 15, 2026
According to Hartford Funds, stocks generated positive performance one year after an act of aggression for 73% of the armed conflicts since World War II.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. “ – Mark Twain
Statistics like these are not useless. They are dangerous.
March 18, 2026
Exodus Movement Fundamentals
Exodus Movement (EXOD), a self-custodial crypto wallet provider, spent $8.3 million evaluating potential acquisitions last year.
Total revenue: $121.5 million. Net loss: $11.3 million. How do you lose money in a year where crypto market cap hit an ATH?
Exodus has a market cap of $275 million and is acquiring a company for $175 million in order to get into the credit card business.
Worse, 17.6% of its listed Class A stock is held by the FTX bankruptcy trust.
Even worse, two founders control 93% of the vote through super-voting shares. The public company's treasury is effectively their private piggy bank.
The stock trades at 2x sales and a low forward PE excluding asset re-valuation losses, but the massive shareholder dilution, conflict of interest and capital allocation priorities make it an AVOID.
(I do own two software stocks trading at a low multiple. Subscribe for access)
March 19, 2026
A tough year for passive investors
This is going to be a tough year for investors who have only seen bull markets.
March 25, 2026
Is SoftBank attempting a bounce?
SoftBank (9984) is eventually going to zero but the chart looks great for a technical long.
March 31, 2026
Fed says private credit is contained
"Subprime is contained" - helicopter Ben Bernanke, 2007
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Good Trading!
Kashyap
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