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The Permanent Portfolio
The outdated 60/40 portfolio fails in modern markets, as bonds no longer provide stability. A better approach is this Permanent Portfolio.
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Mar 26, 20257 min read


Thinking through the risks
Nassim Taleb, a derivatives trader turned writer, coined the term “anti-fragile”. Fragile objects break easily. Durable or sturdy objects...
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Feb 7, 20253 min read


Via Negativa: Avoiding Recency Bias
A lot of people on FinTwit are once again trashing hedge funds and their 2/20 model because these funds failed to beat the SPX. This...
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Jan 5, 20252 min read


Thoughts on GOLD
It’s the question on top of everyone’s minds: is the gold bull market, which began in October 2023, over? Few things to note from the...
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Nov 17, 20242 min read


Trade Update: Banks and Bonds
Futures portfolio update The 10 year note futures (ZN_F) got stopped out this morning. I ended up giving back a little over half my...
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May 29, 20244 min read


Technical Short Ideas in a Strong Bull Market
Membership in the Telegram group with real-time updates is now closed. If you'd like to join, send me an email at...
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May 6, 20243 min read


My Futures Portfolio ahead of CPI
Note the decline in Bollinger Band Width on the Nasdaq Typically, low volatility leads to high volatility. This indicates a move is...
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Apr 9, 20242 min read


Dot com bubble - Is history about to repeat itself?
The dot com bubble peaked on March 10, 2000. Is history about to repeat itself? The up tick rule rarely gets triggered even on big red...
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Mar 9, 20243 min read


Extreme Bullish Sentiment Alert: Natural Gas
Price of LNG goes stratospheric. Will LNG shipping rates follow? Carlsberg May Halt Beer Output in Poland as Energy Woes Spread From...
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Aug 26, 20224 min read


Emotional Aspects of Trading: Dealing with Drawdowns
In India, there's an ancient tale of a king who became a sage in order to assuage his ego. King Vishwamitra coveted a cow belonging to...
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Aug 18, 20223 min read
Thoughts on Mutual Funds
Membership in the Telegram group with real-time updates is now closed. If you'd like to join, send me an email at...
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Aug 3, 20223 min read
Still bullish the containership sector
Originally published in the Against All Odds Research April 2022 Issue. I've been talking about the different segments of shipping for a...
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Apr 5, 20221 min read
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