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Gold has gone parabolic: Time to hedge
Everyone is talking about gold. We own it. We've owned it for a long time. What are we doing today? The red dots you see on the above gold daily chart is the parabolic stop and reverse (pSAR) indicator. Zoom in on the February to mid-April 2024 period or the August-September period. Or more recently, the Jan-Feb 2025 period when we saw a parabolic move in gold after it had already run ‘too far’. A parabolic move is not necessarily a Sell signal. A strong bull market shoul
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Apr 22, 20252 min read


Flash Crash Update
The flash crash in the world’s most overvalued, crowd favorite stocks The flash crash in small caps The flash crash in crude oil The no crash in gold Natural gas completely oblivious to everything that’s going on I have written articles starting from… Macro Outlook – Danger Ahead! (November 2024), Preparing for a Minsky Moment (December 2024), and finally, Trump, Hoover, and the Roaring ‘20s Déjà vu (January 2025) …all calling for something like this to happen. So, why di
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Apr 6, 20252 min read


Monthly rollup | March 2025
Stocks Mentioned enCore Energy (EU), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Taseko Mines (TGB : TKO.TO), Super Micro...
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Apr 1, 20259 min read


The Permanent Portfolio
The outdated 60/40 portfolio fails in modern markets, as bonds no longer provide stability. A better approach is this Permanent Portfolio.
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Mar 26, 20257 min read


Nvidia Singapore Sales: A Peek Behind the Curtain
Every tech company CFO knows the double Irish Dutch sandwich. Before you start fantasizing, no, this is not the theme of an OnlyFans...
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Mar 4, 20253 min read


Monthly rollup | February 2025
Stocks Mentioned Total (TTE), Venture Global (VG), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Tellurian (TELL), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla...
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Mar 1, 202513 min read
The $1.5 billion Ethereum heist
Note: This was originally published on Feb 23, 2025, in the premium newsletter for paid subscribers Two days ago, crypto exchange Bybit experienced a hack. The hackers, purported to be the North Korean hacker group named Lazarus, drained the exchange of $1.46 billion worth of Ethereum. Once the hack became public, Bybit users scrambled to withdraw funds, draining the exchange of an additional $4 billion. There is now talk of "rolling back" the ethereum network to ineffectuate
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Feb 23, 20253 min read


Thinking through the risks
Nassim Taleb, a derivatives trader turned writer, coined the term “anti-fragile”. Fragile objects break easily. Durable or sturdy objects...
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Feb 7, 20253 min read


Monthly rollup | January 2025
Stocks Mentioned SonicShares Global Shipping ETF (BOAT), Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI), New Fortress Energy (NFE), Nvidia (NVDA), Schwab...
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Feb 1, 202516 min read


Trump, Hoover, and the Roaring ‘20s Deja vu
This post compares Trump’s policies to the 1920s, forecasting shifts in the global economic landscape.
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Jan 22, 20258 min read


Via Negativa: Avoiding Recency Bias
A lot of people on FinTwit are once again trashing hedge funds and their 2/20 model because these funds failed to beat the SPX. This...
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Jan 5, 20252 min read
What do James Cordier and Michael Saylor have in common?
People buying bitcoin with their hard earned dollars, even though they don't understand it and feel in their hearts that something is...
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Jan 4, 20252 min read
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