"I think shrinking the [Fed] balance sheet is the wrong objective." - Fed governor Barr. With inflation through the roof, inflation expectations sky high, and the economy excluding AI in a recession, the Fed is printing money. But it's not QE anymore - the new name is RMP. Last week, Fed governor Michael Barr gave a speech defending Fed money printing. Inflation, as measured by CPI, is already higher than the Fed funds rate. The Fed is cutting rates. But that's not enough. As

Everyone is talking about gold. We own it. We've owned it for a long time. What are we doing today? The red dots you see on the above gold daily chart is the parabolic stop and reverse (pSAR) indicator. ​ Zoom in on the February to mid-April 2024 period or the August-September period. Or more recently, the Jan-Feb 2025 period when we saw a parabolic move in gold after it had already run ‘too far’. ​ A parabolic move is not necessarily a Sell signal. A strong bull market shoul

The flash crash in the world’s most overvalued, crowd favorite stocks The flash crash in small caps The flash crash in crude oil The no crash in gold Natural gas completely oblivious to everything that’s going on I have written articles starting from… ​ Macro Outlook – Danger Ahead! (November 2024), Preparing for a Minsky Moment (December 2024), and finally, Trump, Hoover, and the Roaring ‘20s Déjà vu (January 2025) …all calling for something like this to happen. ​ So, why di

This post compares Trump’s policies to the 1920s, forecasting shifts in the global economic landscape.

My first degree was in engineering. I grew up liking the natural sciences and thought the social sciences were full of crap – too touchy feely and unobjective. That changed when I started preparing for business school and my then mentor suggested I read Ayn Rand. From there I discovered Ludwig von Mises, the Austrian school of economics, and realized economics was as objective as a natural science when seen through the Austrian lens. Once I read Murray Rothbard’s Man, Economy

This is a brief update because I’m actively watching the markets and trading this week. I chose the title ‘Danger Ahead’ because I’ve watched and made fun of Carl Icahn’s Danger Ahead video several times over the years. Macro doomers are a dime a dozen, and I know all the jokes about economists calling 7 of the last 2 recessions, etc. Still, there are times to be cautious, and this is one such time. The one chart that scares me: The Fed’s balance sheet is back at August 2020

Membership in the Telegram group with real-time updates is now closed. If you'd like to join, send me an email at kashyapsriram286@gmail.com The Bank of Japan implemented QE and zero interest rate policy in the 1990s, in response to the implosion of a mega bubble. Since then, Japan has had a deflationary economy, i.e. the opposite of the post-Covid US economy. Rather than get eaten away by inflation, money in the bank was able to purchase more goods and services in the future

There is a reason Fed officials and MSM want you to focus on rates - it works to their advantage. The Fed gets to say it is doing its job in controlling inflation by keeping rates higher for longer. MSM reports rates are restrictive, hoping that repeating the message will lower inflation expectations. This is the magician's trick - getting people to look one way while the science-y stuff behind the trick happens elsewhere. I wrote about this in my December macro outlook. Time

Uncover the hidden truths behind the market narrative in Kashyap's Macro Outlook. Dive into the impact of rate cuts, stealth QE & lots more