Monthly rollup | June 2026
- Jul 10
- 6 min read
Introduction
Every month, I publish a rollup containing the "best of" everything I have written over the period. As a global macro analyst and trader, I highlight and comment on the most significant news flow that comes my way. I also go live on YouTube very Friday at 10 am ET on 'The Holy Macro Show', where you can get your questions answered. However, the stock picks and complete portfolio are reserved for the premium newsletter. This month, I recommended selling bitcoin before it crashed, highlighted that South Korean equities had topped, and warned that equities were due for difficult times - a call that played out in July. I also published an update on 17 of our portfolio holdings.
I hope you enjoy this rollup. Be sure to check out the research paper on Quantifying the AI economy.
Stocks Mentioned Nvidia (NVDA), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO), Google (GOOG), Micron (MU), MicroSoft (MSFT), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Bitdeer (BTDR)
Highlights
June 01, 2026
Peak of inflated expectations
ChatGPT was released in November 2022. Nvidia (NVDA) kicked off the AI bull run with its May 2023 earnings report.
While bull markets don't die of old age, bubbles based on a technology trigger do.
AI will definitely change the way we work, but not before a long trough of disillusionment hits.
It is time.
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) monthly metrics
margin loans up 11% m-o-m and 65% y-o-y
avg. trades up 17% m-o-m and 47% y-o-y
New account openings slowed down, which could be the first crack in this retail driven frenzy.
June 03, 2026
Nigeria - crude producer, refiner and exporter
Dangote, Africa's largest refinery, has set its sights on overtaking India's Reliance to become the world's largest refining complex.
Nigeria is a crude producer, refiner and exporter. A rare combination in an energy starved world.
Agribusiness stocks
High volume, but stealthy rally, in the Agribusiness - VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO).
June 08, 2026
Mag 7 underperforming the S&P 493
More signs of the AI mania wearing off. The Mag 7 are now underperforming the S&P 500, which in turn is underperforming the S&P 493.
"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
- Charles Mackay.
Investors are slowly recovering their senses.
June 14, 2026
Equity raises overwhelming share buybacks
This brilliant chart by Gavekal shows how IPO season is draining liquidity from the market. This pressure isn't going away, and if other hyperscalers follow Google (GOOG) lead and sell equity, it will be a significant headwind for the major indices.
Sell the rallies.
June 15, 2026
Cross-asset returns in the 1970s
In 1979, the thinking was inflation is destroying the stock market. BusinessWeek published the now infamous cover "the death of equities".
Fast forward to 2026, the very same inflation is being touted as the reason to own stocks for the long run (and avoid shorting).
Incidentally, the historic record is very clear - gold is the biggest winner during an era of stagflation.
The '70s also saw the S&P 500 get cut in half as the Nifty Fifty bubble burst. Parallels to the current AI bubble, perhaps?
Signs of a blow-off top
We are witnessing a historic blow-off top in US equities driven by algos buying the peace deal and ignoring:
AI models becoming subject to US export controls, collapsing ARR growth projections.
The leaders (Mag 7) turning into laggards, with junk propelling the indices higher (Micron (MU) now has a bigger weight in the Nasdaq than MicroSoft (MSFT) for example).
Plunging free cash flow as capex spend outpaces earnings growth ($AMZN FCF decreased 95% to a mere $1.2 billion in Q1 while capex spend went up 77%).
Two of the Mag 7 (GOOG and NVDA) are now tapping capital markets as internal cash reserves have run out.
Record concentration in the top 10 names, surpassing dotcom bubble peaks.
Decreasing AI usage as human labor becomes cheaper than LLMs for the same work output.
Yes, it feels like this can go on forever, just as it felt like MicroStrategy (MSTR)'s infinite money glitch, or memecoin speculation, or the parabolic move in silver, could go on forever.
Tops are an event, bottoms are a process. We just got the biggest and most awaited event, and there is no further catalyst ahead to keep levitating equities.
June 17, 2026
Still bullish on aluminum
Aluminum is taking a hit on fears that Gulf exports will resume.
Inventories are so critically low, the market will easily absorb any additional supply.
Big picture: the outlook has not changed.
June 20, 2026
Mozambique amends mining law
Mozambique's new law gives the government a minimum 15% non-dilutable equity stake in all mines and processing plants.
You mine it locally, you process it locally, and export only the high-value product. The govt makes money on the entire value chain without investing a dime.
Indonesia did something similar to capture the value of its copper and nickel.
Resource nationalism, or smart value capture?
Norway takes a 78% profit tax from its oil & gas industry and its sovereign wealth fund now has $375,000 for every citizen.
If Mozambique properly channels this wealth, future generations can end up better off than the Portuguese.
June 24, 2026
AI megacaps bleed trillions
Big Tech has negative cash flow thanks to the AI build-out, and the market is finally starting to take notice.
The AI bubble has been stealing the headlines for three years straight. If we're not already past the peak of inflated expectations, we are close.
June 29, 2026
Bitcoin outlook
As bitcoin struggles to hold the $60k level:
Bitcoin ETFs see record monthly outflows
MSTR announces plans to sell down its holdings
Metaplanet makes a new 52-week low, $NAKAsets a record by going down 99.4%
Bitdeer (BTDR) joins the ranks of companies expunging bitcoin from their balance sheet
The pool of bitcoin bagholders continues to shrink.
In a decade, we will remember bitcoin the way we remember the Zune.
MicroStrategy - from sell your kidneys to sell bitcoin
Strategy started buying bitcoin in the $10k-11k range in 2020. After losing over $14 billion on their holdings, they are now net sellers.
Michael Saylor advised people to sell their homes to buy bitcoin at $64k in 2021. He then said sell a kidney but not bitcoin. Then he clarified that he meant YOU should never sell, not that he will never sell.
He sold the bitcoin story to a gullible audience who wanted a shortcut to get rich quick with no effort.
He is now selling bitcoin to slow the unravelling of his PonziStrategy.
While this all unfolds, the X influencers who peddled MSTR, STRC and related products have gone silent.
June 30, 2026
Bitcoin loses $59k and the bitcoin bugs are still in denial.
Like Saylor, they will sell when they are forced to, in distress, after giving back all their gains and most of their capital.
Strategy 2026/ Luna 2022 parallels
"The surest way to go broke? Get an increasing share of a decreasing market. Down the tubes. Slow but sure." - Danny DeVito's character in the 1991 movie Other People's Money.
MSTR is proud of the fact that in the last bear market, their BTC holdings were 50% underwater.
This time around, 80% of their purchases are underwater.
And they now have an increasing share of a decreasing market.
In the movie, Danny makes a speech about how the last buggy whip manufacturer made the best damn buggy whips. But nobody wants to be a shareholder of that company in the automobile era.
Strategy may end up being the last man standing among the bitcoin treasury companies, but it still won't pay to be a shareholder of that business.
This is why Michael Saylor himself has sold shares 101 times and made 0 buys in the last 5 years.
If you were active in crypto in May 2022, you know what's coming.
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Good Trading!
Kashyap
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