Monthly rollup | May 2026
- May 31
- 7 min read
Introduction
Every month, I publish a rollup containing the "best of" everything I have written over the period. As a global macro analyst and trader, I highlight and comment on the most significant news flow that comes my way. I also go live on YouTube very Friday at 10 am ET on 'The Holy Macro Show', where you can get your questions answered. However, the stock picks and complete portfolio are reserved for the premium newsletter. This month, I wrote up a Chinese large-cap tech stock and a cryptocurrency, bringing the year's total to 8 new picks.
I hope you enjoy this rollup. Be sure to check out the article on the Fed's New QE.
Stocks Mentioned Hut 8 (HUT), Apollo Global (APO), Sandisk (SNDK), Nvidia (NVDA) , Coreweave (CRWV), Amazon (AMZN)
Highlights
May 06, 2026
Bitcoin miner turned AI bubble co Hut 8 (HUT) just put out a press release claiming it signed a contract worth $9.8 billion, with options increasing the value up to $25.1 billion.
What's in the fine print?
- delivery of services will begin in Q3 2027, if the counterparty isn't bankrupt or doesn't cancel the lease by then
- the $9.8 billion is over 15 years, which annualizes to a mere $653 million
- the $25.1 billion is over 30 years, during which period the GPUs servicing the contract will need to be scrapped and replaced several times over
The stock is up 13% pre-market on the news. No one reads the fine print when there's an AI delusion promising daily gains.
PE firm Apollo Global
Apollo Global (APO) AUM surpasses $1 trillion for the first time.
The same quarter, stockholders lost $1.9 billion and management took home $711 million.
(Whenever companies take a 'one-off' impairment charge, the sell-side simps adjust it out of earnings to project a rosy picture. To me, big bath accounting charges imply either management had poor foresight or deliberately forestalled booking the loss in order to pad immediate earnings).
May 07, 2026
China leads, USA slows down
"In the decade to 2025, China’s trade with BRI partners surged 240% to $3.4 trillion, far outpacing the 64% growth in China’s overall trade over the same period.
Backed by a still‑humming export machine, the People’s Republic defied Trump’s tariff war to post a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025." - Reuters
China's cross-border interbank payment system witnessed 63% m-o-m growth in March 2026.
Everywhere you look, China is leading. Investors aren't even aware of this because US media has done a good job in making people look the other way. That's going to change after the AI bubble pops.
To err is human, to stop out is trading
Not all my best trades are standout winners. I'm quite proud of getting out of bonds here (see arrow) and avoiding the collapse.
I believe the Fed will cut rates to zero and try to get bond yields lower, but I realistically can't see that happening with copper holding above $6 and inflation rising to double digits.
Parabolic Sandisk
If I were long Sandisk (SNDK), I would set a stop at $1170.
That's the level at which the parabolic stop and reverse (red dots) as well as the 3x 14-day average true range (blue) converge.
Why are these levels important?
As the religious folks tell atheists, you may not believe in God but God believes in you.
Technical traders believe in stops, and they are sufficient in number to create weakness at these points.
May 08, 2026
US food inflation is starting to look like Japan's. Now throw in a lost harvest season and you can imagine what the world looks like 6 months from today.
Somehow, it is all bullish AI and semis though.
May 14, 2026
Is AI a bubble?
Yes. Next question.
While the bubble deniers need to write a wall of text justifying parabolic up moves, one glance at the chart proves this is historic bubble territory.
Nvidia is at it again
The Nvidia (NVDA) , Coreweave (CRWV) incest is reaching new extremes.
Giving it away for free is one way to drive sales, especially when "free" comes with a $108.3 million tax write-off.
May 19, 2026
May 20, 2026
Fuel protests turn violent in Kenya
Fuel protests in Kenya have turned violent after a 23.5% overnight price hike.
Meanwhile, the once sovereign nation of India is begging the US to grant permission to buy Russian oil, oblivious to what's coming when the pumps run dry.
I grew up seeing strikes and riots and wouldn't wish this on anyone. But I have a feeling this will be our new reality soon enough.
May 21, 2026
It takes creativity to grow revenue
A year ago, NVDA had $43.5 billion in total off-balance sheet liabilities.
Today, that figure is $155 billion, of which $101 billion is due this year alone.
Plus, they have an additional $27 billion in equity commitments for their usual revenue round tripping scheme through SPVs.
Investors focus on the $37.5 billion revenue growth y-o-y. I look at the $138.5 billion in obligations it took to get there.
Is Indonesia pioneering a sovereign tool to prevent devaluation?
Indonesia is taking steps to slow or reverse currency depreciation.
Starting next month, all natural resource exporters are required to deposit 100% of their earnings in state banks.
Private contracts will be replaced by a state agency buying from domestic producers and exporting abroad. The goal is to get a better price, prevent under-invoicing, and get FX directly into state coffers.
I expect other exporting nations to do something similar.
Retail turns bearish stocks!
The degen gamblers have found religion. The passive bid is about to disappear, and then it'll be algos beating each other up all the way down.
Remember the 2015 tech bubble?
In 2015, the tech trade was not US but China. The narrative was Morgan Stanley would include China A-shares in one of their indices, and institutional lemmings will be forced buyers.
Everyone and their uncle front ran this supposed inclusion. Chinese brokerage account openings went vertical.
Then one fine day, the entire market collapsed and didn't recover for the next decade.
Parabolic moves pull forward returns from the future. This is why traders always sell parabolas and patient investors wait out the hysteria.
Not all bull runs are the same but this philosophy has saved me a lot of pain.
This picture was taken during the 2015 Chinese stock market mania.
What followed was a decade long bear market, including a regulatory clampdown on tech, gaming and education companies.
May 26, 2026
The last barrel of crude oil loaded before the war has been delivered, refined, and spent
US SPR releases and crude oil futures manipulation have lulled the market into a false sense of complacency. But you can't print gasoline, and summer driving season is here.
Watch for the re-pricing of the entire energy complex. Gradually, and then suddenly.
Sri Lanka declares a surprise rate hike
This is exactly what India needs to do, but won't. Most central bankers punish savers to reward borrowers and currency speculators.
A strong currency will kill exports, goes the battle cry. As if exporters are royalty.
A strong currency is exactly what is needed, so your citizens can hold it rather than the US dollar.
Once more countries realize this, the days of dollar hegemony are finished.
May 27, 2026
In the most recent quarter, NVDA reported $48.5 billion in free cash flow but added a mere $2.63 billion in cash to its balance sheet.
The company's off-balance sheet liabilities are already through the roof and growing every quarter.
Where will they find another $150 bn?
May 30, 2026
You can either look the fool before the crash, or after
Henry Blodget was a rising star during the dotcom bubble. He rose to fame for being bullish Amazon
(AMZN) after the LTCM collapse and Asian Tigers crisis. The stock surged 19% on his call and doubled within a month.
Henry, aged 34, pooh poohed "Old Economy" stocks and personally invested $700k ($1.4 million in 2026 dollars) in the dotcom darlings.
The market crashed and Henry lost it all.
Worse, his employer Merril Lynch, embarrassed by the whole debacle and fighting lawsuits, paid him to leave.
Even worse, the SEC permanently disbarred him from the securities industry for his role in the bubble.
The AI bubbleheads says oil is less relevant to the economy in the backdrop of the Iran war. And they are making money.
Us "Old Economy" folks are thinking the bubbleheads are nuts, and we are losing money for taking the rational trade.
If you didn't live through the dotcom bubble, this is exactly how things played out back then.
You can either look like a fool before the crash, or after. There is no middle ground.
May 31, 2026
Even if you do believe in the AI hype, what goes into building and maintaining these massive data centers?
Slovenia issues panda bonds
Two things Western media won't tell you:
China's CIPS, an alternative to US-controlled SWIFT, is hitting new records in reach and processing volume.
More sovereign European nations are choosing to raise debt in onshore Chinese markets. Slovenia has joined the club, which includes Portugal, Hungary and Poland.
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Good Trading!
Kashyap
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