Monthly rollup | September 2026
Stocks Mentioned: Russell 2000 (IWM, IWN), Wheat (ZW_F), Diesel (HO_F), Gold, OBDC, Partners Group (PGHN), Oracle (ORCL), CoreWeave (CRWV), Cipher Digital (CIFR), Barclays (BCS)
September 01, 2026
Venture capitalists chase profitless growth. So, it seems, do small-cap investors.
September 05, 2026
Analyst consensus has turned more bullish on energy this quarter.
September 12, 2026
The Russia-NATO war is in its 5th year. Black Sea grain loadings are down 60%.
Wheat has outperformed the Mag 7 YTD, and the bull run is just beginning.
September 15, 2026
If you're invested in big, low grade open pit mines, take note. Higher diesel kills mine economics.
Worst case scenario, companies suspend operations because they can't procure diesel.
Knowing what miners you own is more important than ever. A rising tide won't lift all boats.
September 16, 2026
When it comes to gold accumulation, central banks don't care about Fed rate hikes. Neither should you.
September 18, 2026
On Bubbles
"Everyone is so glib about bubbles now, saying they don’t matter, but they won’t feel that way when their portfolios are down 75%.
The very people who say that bubbles don’t matter will be angry and bitterly complain that they have been misled." - Edward Chancellor
Housing
The hardest hit sector will remain the hardest hit sector as long as the Fed keeps hiking rates.
On the bright side, homes become durable consumer goods again. Rising home prices is an affordability crisis. Falling prices fixes society.
September 19, 2026
Update on private credit
In February, I wrote an article for paid subscribers covering the trouble in OWL land.
Blue Owl is one of the worst offenders in the credit fueled AI bubble. When things went south at OBDC II, one of their unlisted business development vehicles, they tried to punt it into the publicly traded OBDC.
Shareholders of OBDC II were offered a 20% haircut but immediate liquidity via public markets, or the chance to wait and get their money back.
Every trader knows the first loss is always the best loss, but sophisticated OBDC II shareholders preferred the extend-and-pretend approach.
Blue Owl complied. They gated the fund, sold their best assets near par, and returned $2.50 in March.
The next distribution was 42 cents in April. After that, crickets.
NAV at merger announcement: $8.45
Total distribution: $2.92
Remaining: $5.53
Actual NAV as of Q2: $4.87
Loss: $0.66 (11.9% of remaining NAV)
The remaining pile of smelly cat turd instantly got marked down, and the stench is getting worse with every passing month.
If they could have liquidated faster, they would have, but they can't, so they shan't.
And now OBDC II shareholders are stuck with illiquidity discount, further MTM losses, and dwindling hopes of ever getting their capital back.
"Our key takeaway from this behavior is that distribution cuts are so worrisome that some bad actors are playing Enron-like accounting games... The firms are using repo-like loans from one particular investment bank to mask debt." - Rubric Capital in Feb 2026, warning about private credit.
This time won't be different.
Private credit's woes are still being ignored when Wall Street discusses the AI bubble.
But this $2 trillion industry is in deep, deep trouble and is months away from imploding. Even evergreen funds are being gated (see PGHN) as redemption requests become overwhelming.
I suspect CoreWeave and Oracle debt fail first, and then the dominoes will fall quickly.
As for OBDC shareholders, they haven't fared so well either. But at least they can sell shares and get out.
September 21, 2026
I never thought I would live to see a day when the world's largest equity market went parabolic.
I've seen parabolas in crypto, gold, silver, uranium, softs, natural gas, gasoline & diesel, Chinese tech, India's Bank Nifty and many individual stocks.
This one is for the history books, to be taught alongside the South Sea bubble and Tulipmania.
September 22, 2026
They say you don’t ring a bell at the top. Foreign purchases of US equities has gone parabolic. What happens when this flow reverses?
September 23, 2026
Something wicked this way comes...
The market has absorbed a trifecta of rate hikes from the ECB, Fed and BoJ this month. While equities party on, private credit is rolling over, diesel is becoming unobtainable, and treasuries are signaling distress.
The indicators are flashing macro regime change. I'm paying attention.
September 25, 2026
Bitcoin miner turned AI bubble co Cipher Digital put out a press release with catchy headlines to woo algos. Here's the non-fluff version:
Cipher commits to spending $359.3 million upfront and split excess costs 50/50 with tenant, expects $520 million a year in revenue beginning 2037.
September 29, 2026
With the RBA hiking 25 bps today, this month has seen a quadfecta of rate hikes. The macro backdrop says investors need to be prepared for a regime change.
September 30, 2026
UK based Barclays is selling off in sync with US financials because it is overexposed to private credit, which is now synonymous with AI.
Imagine clueless Enron investors bidding up the stock while Enron’s banking partners pull the plug. That’s what’s happening with AI bubble stocks.
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Good Trading!
Kashyap
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