Anatomy of a 3x: Loncor Gold
- Jul 4
- 2 min read
I bought a DRC gold explorer nobody wanted at 47 cents. Eleven months later, it was acquired for C$1.38. Here's the full story - including the part where I almost sold.
Every November and December, Canadian and US investors dump their losers to book tax losses. Volume dries up, bids disappear, and good small-cap stocks go on sale for no fundamental reason. I build my watchlist all year and go shopping in tax-loss season. It's a seasonal edge that's too small and too illiquid for the big funds to bother with, which is exactly why it works.
In November 2024, that shopping list included Loncor Gold, a gold explorer in the Democratic Republic of Congo. My average entry: 47 cents Canadian.
DRC gold explorers are about as unloved as it gets. That was the point. You don't get 3x opportunities in stocks everyone is comfortable owning.
What happened next is the part nobody tells you about.
The stock ran up hard, then gave it all back. It would have been easy to cut and run. I had done exactly that with Vault Minerals, another tax-loss season pick.
But I held, because the thesis hadn't changed. The gold bull market was intact, the asset was real, and majors were hunting for ounces.
In October 2025, China-based Chengtun Mining Group made an all-cash offer of C$1.38 per share, valuing Loncor at C$261 million. Against my 47-cent entry, it was a near-3x in less than a year.
Loncor is the second gold explorer in my portfolio to get taken out this cycle. The first, Osisko Mining, was taken out by Gold Fields in 2024 for a quick 80% win. When you own quality ounces in the ground during a gold bull market, the acquirers eventually come to you.
The lessons, in order of importance:
Riding winners is harder than finding them. As I wrote to subscribers at the time: riding big winners is as much a matter of luck as it is a matter of smarts. The chart tests your conviction before it pays you.
Buy when sellers are forced. Tax-loss season sellers weren't selling Loncor on fundamentals. They were selling because it was December and they needed the loss.
Sizing is what lets you hold. A position sized so that a 50% drawdown doesn't scare you is a position you can actually ride to the takeover.
Subscribers got the buy recommendation at 47 cents in real time, the "hold your nerve" updates through the Q2 round-trip, and the exit plan when the deal was announced. That's what the premium newsletter is: real trading, real mistakes, real results — with position sizes and cost basis published on everything.
P.S. The 2025 Explorers portfolio, where Loncor lived, returned +123.2% for the year.
Good Trading!
Kashyap Sriram
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