January 17, 2025
Newsletter overview
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A walkthrough of the member area:
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Access to all articles and reports.
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A portfolio overview with trades, entry prices, portfolio allocation & diversification strategies.
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Discussion on how the content differs from other financial creators.
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Subscription pricing and value are highlighted.
Deep dive: Financial trends and historical parallels
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1.Strategic crypto reserve and oil tariffs
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An exploration of the buzz around the Strategic Crypto Reserve.
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Discussion of proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and their implications for the oil sector.
2. Economic parallels: 1920s vs. present
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Comparison of the pre-Herbert Hoover era to recent economic trends:
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Roaring 20s Innovations: Automobiles and radio fueled economic excitement.
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Modern Innovations: Comparable to today's tech and crypto bubbles.
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Strong Dollar Influence: Similar to gold inflows in the 1920s; foreign capital now flows into the U.S.
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Margin Debt Concerns: Then and now, reliance on debt is a risk factor.
3. Policy impacts on markets
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Historical context:
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Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act’s role in the Great Depression.
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Hoover’s policy missteps, including restrictions on margin trading.
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Modern-day relevance:
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Current tariffs and their potential to distort markets.
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Risks of prolonged economic challenges due to policy choices.
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Macro analysis and predictions
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1.Tariffs and global trade
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Concerns about inflationary effects and political instability.
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Tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices, resembling tax increases.
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Historical lesson: Tariffs are hard to reverse once implemented.
2. International dynamics
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U.S.-China relations:
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Trade wars leading to long-term structural changes, including stronger China-Brazil agricultural ties.
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Impact on allies:
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Restrictions on AI chip exports hurt not only China but also U.S. allies.
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Sanctions on Russian tankers complicate global oil trade.
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3. Future Scenarios
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Speculation on whether current policies could lead to a “Minsky Moment” (a severe economic crash).
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Importance of having a historical framework to contextualize present-day events.
Key Takeaways
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Recognizing historical patterns helps in interpreting current events.
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Preparedness for economic shifts requires both historical awareness and strategic adaptability.
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