Nearly 4 months later, bitcoin volatility has absolutely collapsed. Usually, an asset that's left for dead continues to hug the bottom and do nothing as traders lose interest, and that may well be the case with bitcoin too. The setup looks interesting on the long side from a trading perspective. Current price (~$19.1k) is 8% above the 6/18 liquidation low. A stop at that low, in expectation of a mini-rally to $23.6k presents a 1:3 risk/reward trade. I like trades where I can set close stops, but I'm not going to trade bitcoin this way. If we do get a band squeeze breakout, it's going to run for a really, really long time. I'm happy to miss out on the first leg of the move and just wait for a perfect entry. What does that look like? Something similar to 2020, when Raoul Pal was one of the few folks pounding the table on bitcoin. I don't endorse trading that way, but that was the perfect setup and the key part is that it was after the Fed started printing unlimited money that bitcoin really took off. You didn't have to buy the very bottom or trade it.
Let the Fed finish hiking. Even if the bottom is in, it doesn't matter. If you buy an asset that can 20x, you will never capture the whole move. Don't be afraid of missing out.
Good Trading!
Kashyap