Buy Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)
The math is simple. Each Grayscale share represents 0.00091342 btc. You can check each day's value here
At $7.98 per share, that implies a bitcoin price of $8736, a full 48% discount to spot bitcoin price. GBTC is not bitcoin - it is a closed end trust charging a 2% management fee just to (purportedly) hold bitcoin on Coinbase. Coinbase says the bitcoin is indeed held in custody, but they refuse to show proof on the blockchain. If there is no underlying bitcoin backing the share value, the whole thing is a fraud and it goes to zero when it all comes out. That's the worst case scenario.
The best case scenario is that they do hold all the bitcoin they say they do, and they decide to sell that bitcoin and liquidate the trust, closing that 48% discount and giving shareholders a near 100% return.
This risk/reward closely resembles a binary option. A double or nothing in betting circles. The extra 2% you pay is for a call option on the bitcoin price, on top of the double or nothing bet. I like how cheap the call option is. I'll skew this slightly in favor of taking the bet by noting that if Grayscale has been lying about the collateral in this trust, they stand to lose their fat management fees on ~$15 billion in AUM, not to mention the cost and liability associated with lawsuits. Plus, they are suing the SEC to allow them to convert GBTC into an ETF.
It would be an incredibly stupid move to ask for ETF conversion if they actually hold no bitcoin. It would also be a reputation hit to the parent company Digital Currency Group. That makes this a double or nothing, but with the odds highly tilted toward the outcome being a double rather than a nothing.
It's a high risk bet, but I like the upside enough to take the bet.
Good Trading!
Kashyap