Monthly rollup | August 2025
- Sep 1
- 6 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
Stocks Mentioned Chevron (CVX), Exxon (XOM), Nvidia (NVDA), Coreweave (CRWV), Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE), Applied Digital Corp (APLD), Forge Global Holdings (FRGE), Apollo Global Management (APO), BlackRock (BLK), Solana (SOL)
Highlights
August 01, 2025
August 04, 2025
Chevron's tightrope walk in Venezuela
The dirty secret about sanctions is that it isn't really about human rights but about oil. OPEC uses a quota system, the US tightens and lightens sanctions.
Chevron (CVX) completed the Hess acquisition after Exxon (XOM) lost its court case. Venezuela claims ownership of the Guyanese offshore oilfields owned by Exxon and Chevron, and recently sent in a warship to intimidate Exxon.
By greenlighting Chevron's return to Venezuela, the US is de-escalating tensions. Of course, for Chevron this is a delicate situation.
None of these decisions have anything to do with human rights. It is all about control over the world's scarce energy resources.
Bearish oil?
Goldman Sachs is bearish on oil because of weak US economic data.
If the lady who reports the data gets fired, does that change the outlook?
August 07, 2025
Russian exports defy sanctions
The EU has imposed 18 rounds of sanctions on Russia, with no impact on Russian oil and distillate exports.
Russia has weathered being kicked out of SWIFT, developed closer ties to China and India, and showed the world that it is still a superpower.
Meanwhile, the EU has de-industralized and become more dependent on the US.
When history books are written, historians will cite these events as the pivotal moments which ushered in the multi-polar world order.
August 12, 2025
Regime uncertainty is long-term negative for US assets
Who in their right mind is buying US equities here?
Nobody.
It is all passive flows holding up the market at this point. The next correction will not be merely a correction but a full blown, relentless bear market.
Think China after the 2014 internet bubble, but worse.
August 15, 2025
Gold and economic freedom
On August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon severed the last of the dollar's ties to gold.
In a speech delivered after two days of deliberations at Camp David, Nixon said:
"I have directed Secretary Connally to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the American dollar except in amounts and conditions determined to be in the interest of monetary stability and in the best interests of the United States".
Since then, using official inflation figures, the dollar has lost 88% of its value.
Nowadays, when the Fed debases the currency, there are multiple bug out options. Back then, there was only gold - and it was illegal for Americans to own it.
It took the gold bugs until 1974 to pressure then President Gerald Ford into making gold ownership legal, and another 3 years to ensure no sitting President could outlaw gold ownership again through Executive Orders.
Freedoms are hard won.
August 18, 2025
IEA is bearish oil, and they are right
"Oil market balances look ever more bloated as forecast supply far eclipses demand towards year-end and in 2026."
The latest IEA oil market report is pessimistic about oil prices rebounding, calling for higher supply and lower demand growth.
However, demand is a function of the dollar and lower dollar = higher demand in rest of the world ex. US.
The demand picture in EM will change once EM currencies regain value vs the USD, which I expect with high conviction.
August 21, 2025
The AI blow off top is forming
Excellent article by Kuppy on the final phase of the AI bubble.
In Phase 1 (2022-23), companies bought GPUs from Nvidia (NVDA) and plugged them into available data center capacity. Bitcoin miners like Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE) and Applied Digital Corp (APLD) unplugged their ASICs and got in on the boom.
In Phase 2 (2023-24), venture debt/private credit financed the likes of Coreweave (CRWV) and funded data center expansion. More GPUs, more data center space, more strain on power grids and utilities. But at least the VC/PE players were getting rich on paper by bidding up shares in each funding series.
In Phase 3 (2025), the debt-laden data center providers are taken public. Private equity stakes are exited on secondary platforms like Forge Global Holdings (FRGE) or dumped on unsuspecting HNWIs by "fiduciaries". Private debt is dumped on the retirement accounts of the financially naive.
In Phase 4 (2026 and beyond), these neo-clouds and other AI infra plays are bankrupted, their assets are seized by the likes of Apollo Global Management (APO) and BlackRock (BLK) at pennies on the dollar, and new PE funds set up to buy these depreciated but productive assets enjoy a 20% unlevered ROIC.
Public market investors can't make money on the way down, but the PE firms which set this up sure can (the Apollo-Executive Life origin story is the stuff of legends and one which every PE shop seeks to emulate).
The math was never meant to make sense. The goal was always to unload the toxic crap on retail then buy it back from bankruptcy court.
August 23, 2025
Too little inflation? Really?
In 2019, former Fed chair Janet Yellen was worried that a decade of money printing had resulted in very little inflation.
The deflationary shock created by the GFC, and the VC led boom in the "convenience economy", took the pressure off consumer prices.
A $20 cab ride cost $1 for the consumer and $19 for Benchmark Capital and other VC firms. The VCs borrowed at near 0% and the losses didn't matter because there was plenty of capital to fund every convenience based startup.
The financial repression hurt Boomers, who lost out on both CD income and home prices, but benefited everyone else.
The 2008-19 era of money printing didn't cause high CPI inflation, which made the Fed desperate to fight deflation when Covid came along.
The result? Sky high everything. Which is fine if you're an asset owner spending less than 2% of your net worth every year. But not if you're in your 20s and 30s trying to make a buck and save it.
This is the point in history where Powell is announcing he's giving up on even pretending to care about inflation.
The Fed has sold out young Americans in favor of the asset rich, widening the class divide and absolutely destroying the middle class. These are the circumstances behind every revolution in history.
Why are so many millennials and Gen Z attracted to sports betting, 0dte options, meme stocks and crypto? Because gambling is now pretty much the only way to get ahead if you didn't get into Harvard.
Being on OF is more lucrative than an academic career after a PhD or playing professional tennis.
The new Fed policy of abandoning half the dual mandate is going to have serious long term repercussions for the American economy.
But it'll be good for stocks until institutional investors leave the party and start selling US assets in favor of international ones.
The Fed prefers to enjoy a short term reprieve from Trump bullying, even if it means life will change forever for the average American.
August 24, 2025
I rode Solana (SOL) from $11 to $220 but to clarify, it was $11 to $23 the first go and then $17-$19 to $220 the next (timestamps on telegram below).
I was pyramiding on the second trade but I also took some staking gains off the table during the bull run to buy other alts. The final exit was at $220 in November 2024.
Final exit on bitcoin was end of Feb '24 (had some change which I sold in May) and ETH in August '24 (sold >80% in late July but had the rest staked so that got delayed).
Crypto account has been 100% in USDT and paxgold since November.
Did I exit too early? I honestly don't care. I'm happy building my business and that needs all my mind space. I've seen a few of these crypto cycles and I just don't want to go through another full cycle.
August 26, 2025
Implications of Trump attempting to fire FOMC voting member Lisa D. Cook
There are 12 voting members of the FOMC, 7 governors and 5 regional bank presidents.
Adriana D. Kugler, who recently resigned, was a governor. Her replacement will be appointed by Trump.
Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller, both governors, are already in the Trump camp. Kugler's replacement makes 3.
If Lisa Cook is fired and replaced with a Trump appointee, the US govt will gain control of 4/12 voting members.
John Williams, described as a centrist, might be swayed into joining the Trump camp, which gives the doves 5 votes.
Bully 2 more voting members into either stepping down or voting for rate cuts, and the FOMC can vote 7-5 in favor of cuts even with Powell dissenting.
This ends the illusion of central bank independence and kickstarts Project Zimbabwe.
We're witnessing the real life version of 12 Angry Men, but with a 13th juror sitting outside the room and calling the shots.
Is that good or bad for equities and Fartcoin? When it happens, the bond market will have the answer.
For now, all we can do is be mentally prepared for this scenario.
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Good Trading!
Kashyap