Monthly rollup | February 2026
- Feb 28
- 2 min read
Stocks Mentioned Blue Owl (OWL), Nvidia (NVDA), Coreweave (CRWV), Oracle (ORCL), Meta (META)
Highlights
February 20, 2026
Trouble in Owl Land
In November last year, Blue Owl tried to get rid of OBDC II by making the publicly traded OBDC acquire it.
Investors balked at the deal's 20% hair cut and sent Blue Owl (OWL) shares plunging.
Blue Owl was left with no choice but to stop marking-to-myth.
Given that the same operator did an Enron-like deal for Meta (META), there will be a lot more dead canaries in the private credit coal mine.
February 21, 2026
The Fed is worried about the private credit led AI bubble
From the FOMC meeting minutes:
In their discussion of financial stability, several participants commented on high asset valuations and historically low credit spreads.
Some participants discussed potential vulnerabilities associated with recent developments in the AI sector, including elevated equity market valuations, high concentration of market values and activities in a small number of firms, and increased debt financing.
A few participants commented that the financing of the AI-related infrastructure buildout in opaque private markets warranted monitoring.
Several participants highlighted vulnerabilities associated with the private credit sector and its provision of credit to riskier borrowers, including risks related to interconnections with other types of nonbank financial institutions, such as insurance companies, and banks’ exposure to this sector.
Nvidia (NVDA), Coreweave (CRWV), Oracle (ORCL), Meta (META), Blue Owl (OWL)
February 25, 2026
Rotate from crypto to commodities
Crypto as an asset class is done. Commodities as an asset class are shining.
Rotate.
February 28, 2026
Never get emotional about a trade
Exactly two years ago today, I sold all my bitcoin at $64.5k.
The price is now $64.3k.
That's two years of dead money if I hadn't sold.
The bitcoin bugs have spent this period praying it goes to $1 million a coin.
They dreamt of retiring on their crypto riches. All they achieved was a giant zero for 730 days of HODLing.
Worse, some of them have taken credit card debt or borrowed against their holdings. They look fondly to the old days when the pyramid scheme benefited the early adopters, 'cos that's the only hope they have left.
This, ladies and gentlemen, is the price you pay when you join a cult.
Never get emotional about a trade.
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Good Trading!
Kashyap
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