Monthly rollup | October 2025
- Nov 3
- 6 min read
Stocks Mentioned 1911 Gold (TSV:AUMB, OTC:AUMBF), Oracle (ORCL), Coreweave (CRWV), Nvidia (NVDA), Coinbase (COIN), Plantir (PLTR), Meta (META), Flotek Industries (FTK)
Highlights
October 09, 2025
Celebrating the first 10-bagger in the portfolio
1911 Gold (TSV:AUMB, OTC:AUMBF) is now a 10-bagger for me, the first in this gold cycle.
Below are a couple of excerpts from my Initiation Report on the company.
I called this stock a 5-bagger in my report. Turns out, I was off by a factor of 2. That's a mistake I can live with.
Congrats to @1911goldcorp management for dazzling investors at Beaver Creek and congrats to subscribers who followed me on this trade.
If you'd like to read the full initiation report, I'll be happy to share it with you.
Watch the Japanese Yen
Scariest chart in markets today. If the yen blows, the BoJ will have to raise rates or risk currency collapse.
There are no easy options left. Raising rates will crash their bond market and US stocks. Currency collapse will lead to hyperinflation and chaos.
The Fed can come to the rescue but bailing out Japan is not as easy as bailing out Argentina.
Will the Japanese Yen be the first first-world currency to collapse in modern times?
October 10, 2025
Gasoline is at a critical level. US gasoline stocks are higher than year ago levels. News of refinery fires and shutdowns hasn't caused an uptick in price. First Brands bankruptcy indicates demand may decrease.
If gasoline breaks down, a US recession is confirmed.
October 12, 2025
Gasoline is a leading indicator. NBER data is a lagging indicator.
Without all the AI malinvestment, US GDP grew just 0.1% in the first half of 2025. Data center investment accounted for a whopping 92% of GDP expansion - this is bigger than the railroads mania, subprime and dotcom.
If you remove the revenue round tripping from the data, GDP growth is already negative.
I wouldn't second guess this price action - this is a time to be completely out of oil, nat gas, heating oil and gasoline futures.
October 13, 2025
The AI bubble is debt fueled
Since this graphic was created, Oracle (ORCL) is looking to raise another $18 billion in debt.
Coreweave (CRWV) has a D/E ratio of 381% and unlike mature tech companies, it is on a doom loop of raising debt in order to cover operating losses.
Nvidia (NVDA) has a ton of debt, but they have hidden $45.8 billion off-balance sheet. Re-working to include that, the D/E ratio spikes to 86%.
The AI bust will be a bigger blow for private credit than the First Brands bankruptcy.
Bitcoin: from fiat alternative to get rich quick scheme
The Taylor Rule was proposed in 1992, the same year New Zealand adopted its official 2% a year inflation target, which the rest of the world blindly followed.
In 2009, bitcoin was introduced as a cypherpunk Taylor rule - initially promising a lot of inflation, but decreasing over time as adoption grew.
Like a cheese sample at Costco, bitcoin was freely handed out to anyone who generated a wallet address. The goal: to get techies familiar with using a new protocol and self-custody.
The value proposition was simple: this was a currency for the internet era, but better than previous cypherpunk ideas like the Liberty Dollar because there was no central point of failure, no offices to raid, and no CEOs to arrest.
This appealed to anarcho-capitalists and Ron Paul libertarians, who used it as a platform to educate people on the principles of sound money, building on the Austrian school, Rothbardians and Randists.
Early on-ramps were provided by Winklevoss backed players like Charlie Shrem, who were legally licensed money transmitters.
Then came Coinbase (COIN), the Ethereum Foundation, Korean gamblers, Jane Street, etc and activity exploded, resulting in the first mainstream crypto asset bubble of 2016-17.
NOWHERE IN THIS ERA DID THE CYPHERPUNKS MARKET BITCOIN AS A GET-RICH-QUICK SCHEME.
As the old guard faded away, the new guard who replaced the visionaries adopted a different vision. Much like Peter Thiel shed his libertarian roots and went over to the dark side with Plantir (PLTR), the bitcoiners shed their cypherpunk roots and became money hungry.
They launched cloud mining scams, used their clout to oppose network upgrades, supported dictatorships, and eventually got in bed with Wall Street - a 180 degree turn of events from opposing central banking to feeding at the trough of central bank largesse.
To protect their moat, they denigrate all other crypto projects and even gold. They promise newbies they will get rich quick if they go "all-in" on bitcoin, shun other investments, and just pray.
While waiting, the acolytes are to spread the gospel and bring more recruits into the Bitcoin Church.
Bitcoin started out as a non-discretionary central bank bound by code. It has morphed into a get-rich-quick scheme.
Nobody uses the bitcoin network.
The cypherpunks have migrated over to BSV, Kaspa, ZCash, Monero and the like. Casual users have switched to USDT on Solana/ Tron/ TON.
If you're buying bitcoin now, you are simply exit liquidity for higher-ups in a Ponzi pyramid. Don't be the greater fool.
Hyperscalers are spending 60% of operating cash flow on capex
This number can go higher, but remember Meta (META) had to raise debt in 2022 when the market tanked. If nothing else, spending it all on capex and buybacks isn't prudent simply because markets are cyclical.
October 15, 2025
Below is from Howard Marks' compendium of 35 years worth of investor memos.
The ballooning of convertible debt mutual funds in that era is eerily reminiscent of the growth of private credit this century.
Private credit players have "poisoned the well" and tried to get retail to drink the water. The share price of the major players shows no one is biting.
The unwind will be swift.
October 18, 2025
"Precious metals are tanking!"
Parabolas aren't healthy. I'm happy to see corrections, in terms of both price and time, so gold doesn't become a momentum asset.
I own physical gold that has been passed down for two generations. How late am I?
October 19, 2025
“My antenna goes up when things like that [credit defaults] happen. And I probably shouldn’t say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more… Everyone should be forewarned on this.” - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan.
October 24, 2025
The last time "long gold" was considered a crowded trade, gold frustrated the Johnny-come-latelys by going sideways for months. It never broke trend. It didn't have scary volatility. It just sat still.
Corrections happen in terms of both price and time. Handling price corrections is easy. Can you sit on your hands while an asset goes sideways for months, even as other assets make the daily news?
Riding these mega uptrends means sitting on your hands while a profitable position does nothing. That's harder to do than HODLing through a sharp sell-off.
October 27, 2025
In 2015, when I got into commodities, the news flow was pessimistic.
Gold bugs had lost 90% of their wealth in the 2013-15 bear market. Oil bulls had the same experience from H2 2014-15.
Shipping investors had been destroyed due to too much debt and over-ordering of vessels.
Hiring activity picking up now is NOT a contrarian indicator. It is simply the market correcting an excess in one direction with an explosive move in the other.
Parabolic moves are normal in bull markets. As are sideways corrections. Handling the volatility, both financial and emotional, is key to riding these long bull markets without getting shaken out by every piece of news.
October 28, 2025
In hindsight, Julian Robertson should have held on just a bit longer. But would you short tech today and hold on while everyone else loses their minds?
Bubbles destroy capital. Bull or bear, it doesn't matter. Everyone loses money when markets melt up for no reason.
Greenlight Capital:
"This remains the most expensive market we have experienced, & we don’t see a better option than continuing to be cautious.... When the tide turns, it does so quickly & without warning. Even 25 years later, it’s still not clear why the internet bubble popped when it did. Our view is that it was due to the last buyer buying & the last short seller covering—a phenomenon that is very difficult to time."
October 30, 2025
Flotek Industries
This is not the chart of a tech company. Flotek Industries (FTK) is an oil service company specializing in drilling fluids and helping oil producers get the most bang for their buck.
Even after this incredible run up, the stock isn't too richly priced at 2.3x sales and 35x earnings.
Diversification and sector agnostic value hunting hasn't paid off during the AI bubble, but it never hurts to keep a watchlist of things to buy once the market turns.
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Good Trading!
Kashyap
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