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Weekly rollup | April 24-30 2023

Stocks Mentioned: Matador Resources (MTDR), Gasoline ETF (UGA), Brent crude ETF (BNO), New Fortress Energy (NFE), Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), Talos Energy (TALO), W&T Offshore (WTI), Weatherfors International (WFRD), Helmerich & Payne (HP), SEACOR Marine Holdings (SMHI), EQT Corp (EQT), Antero Resources Corp (AR), Golar LNG (GLNG), Tellurian Inc (TELL), Uranium Energy Corp (UEC), Navigator (NVGS), Packaging Corp of America (PKG), Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), GSCI Commodity Index ETF (GSG)

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April 24 2023

Bought Matador Resources (MTDR) today. Added to GSG and short positions on Bitcoin, Apple and NVidia. No longer short Cameco (still long UEC) but I am short STNG again.

April 25 2023

Today is one of the best buying opportunities for crude oil and related stocks. US recession? So what? The dollar is tanking, and the rest of the world has already been in recession. Europe has emerged from an energy crisis. Saudi and OPEC call the shots on oil prices, not Biden. Not with the SPR on the verge of physically collapsing.

I own the following:

  • June crude oil futures


  • Oil services: WFRD, HP, SMHI

  • Nat gas: EQT, AR


  • Also, UEC for uranium exposure

I had OVV as well, which just got stopped out. Long energy is a big part of my portfolio so I'm not re-entering OVV.

Long energy, short tech. The rotation is going to be nasty and volatile, but this combo should help dampen the volatility and position my portfolio for stagflation.

Bought Gasoline ETF (UGA) which tracks RBOB futures and Brent crude ETF (BNO). Also added to NFE - $6 billion market cap company expected to earn $2 billion in EBITDA this year, with growth rising in 2024.

Packaging Corp of America (PKG) reported lower sales in Q1 and expects still lower sales in Q2. This does not bode well for retail/ e-commerce sales and paints a picture of weakening consumer demand.

In the Packaging segment, total corrugated products shipments and shipments per day were down (12.7%) compared to the first quarter of 2022.

Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO, said, “Packaging segment demand was below our expectations for the quarter. Consumer spending continues to be negatively impacted by higher interest rates and persistent inflation along with consumer buying preferences skewed more towards services versus durable and non-durable goods. After a strong start in January, consumer spending was increasingly softer as the quarter progressed, similar to our box shipments during the quarter. In addition, the PMI index indicates manufacturing has remained in contraction territory for the last five months and continued to decline...

Looking ahead as we move from the first and into the second quarter [...] prices will be lower as a result of the previously published domestic containerboard price decreases along with lower export prices. Sales volume as well as prices and mix in the Paper segment are assumed to be slightly lower based on lower demand".

April 28 2023

The market has well and truly gone nuts. The Nifty 50 bubble doesn't hold a candle to this.

April 29 2023

The ETF QQEW owns the same stocks as QQQ, but weights them all equally, as opposed to by total capitalization. Note that smaller companies bottomed first and led the rally, but are now lagging the mega caps. Another sign of liquidity fading. We can observe the same with bitcoin, where volumes collapsed in March on the move higher - and the rest of the crypto space lagged bitcoin's performance. This is a bearish divergence usually indicating a move down is coming.

April 30

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