Weekly rollup | June 06-12 2022
Stocks Mentioned: Core Scientific (CORZ), TeraWulf (WULF), Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC), StealthGas (GASS)
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June 06 2022
Core Scientific (CORZ) and TeraWulf (WULF) are both down big today (5% and 9.7% respectively) while the other miners are mostly up and bitcoin itself is up 7.1%. I did not expect this, nor can I find a reason why. CORZ reported decent monthly production data for May, in keeping with its hash power. Yes there were insider sales but that's been true since the SPAC listing, and that's true of Coinbase as well. I'd give it a little more time to see if the price action changes, but if not then I'm going to exit by EOD.
No improvement in price action, except now most miners are in the red, with WULF down the most at 15.1% and CORZ and CIFR competing for second place, down ~9%. This is a newly emerging sector, and there are too many variables to come up with a valuation I can be comfortable with, especially since bitcoin itself is mostly flat and hasn't yet established a new uptrend. I say it's time to pull the plug, exit at the current price of $2.53 for a loss of 5.6%.
June 07 2022
Update on the Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC) short trade
We're up 36% on the GASS trade in less than a week. The crazy part is the stock is still cheap. Not going to try to guess when this parabolic up move ends. Just ride it and hope to exit on the way down. I like to use parabolic SAR stops in scenarios like this to take the guesswork out of it and make it emotionally easier to exit without second guessing my decision.
June 08 2022
US Seeks $4.3 Bln to Buy Enriched Uranium From Domestic Sources
That's the headline which sent uranium stocks soaring yesterday, and not just US uranium plays but Canadian ones as well yesterday and Australian ones today. We're already long uranium with a position in YCA.L and URG so the news is a nice tailwind.
Sell StealthGas (GASS) at $3.74
This has been an amazing trade. The stock took off like a rocket, and has only now taken a breather. At its high of $4.11, the stock had moved all the way up to its 100 month moving average and almost crossed its July 2019 peak price. Maybe if $BOAT hadn't taken a nasty hit today (down 5.46% as I type), this stock would have kept going parabolic. However, now that it has sputtered, I'm cautious. Every other LNG stock on my list has lost momentum as well. This could just be temporary. The technical stop on this trade is $3, a full 20% below the current price of $3.73. I'm not willing to give up my current gains, so I'm exiting on the first down day.
Based on my entry at $2.92, we are recording a gain of 28.1% on this trade.
June 11 2022
Positioning as of this week's close. Added a bit to my containership positions and uranium. Gross exposure is now 150% and I'm net long 138%, chiefly due to a decline in account equity as most trades took a hit this week. I expect my account equity to recover next week as the containership trade shrugs off the inane rantings of Biden about farmers and retailers overpaying for freight transport. Algo driven selling should reverse as fundamentals start to take precedence. For now, patience.
June 12 2022
Article is behind a paywall but the headline tells you everything you need to know. US retailers are forecasting near-record imports through the peak shipping season as back-to-school goods that have already begun landing are followed quickly by holiday season merchandise.
US-Ports: Near-record US imports to continue through October: retailers