Monthly rollup | December 2025
- Dec 31, 2025
- 3 min read
Updated: 9 hours ago
Stocks Mentioned
Highlights
December 06, 2025
AI Bubble about to burst
"By 2030, technology executives will be faced with the challenge of deploying about $500 billion in capital expenditures and finding about $2 trillion in new revenue to profitably meet demand."
The key word here is 'profitably'.
Where will the $2 trillion in AI revenue come from? 3 years after the launch of ChatGPT, OpenAI has hit $20 billion in ARR.
In order to generate a 5% ROIC on their $1.4 trillion in committed capex, Sam Altman would have to show $70 billion in profits every year, after accounting for depreciation and power costs. A tall ask.
The hype over the AI bubble stocks makes as much sense as flipping NFTs on OpenSea. $ORCL CDS blowing out is the canary in the coal mine.
Steer clear of crypto
Crypto isn't a long-term buy and hold. It is a trade. Play the cycle, make money and get out of the way.
This is the part of the cycle where I stay away.
December 12, 2025
I am very good at catching long-term trend changes.
I was invested in both precious metals and bitcoin until this point, and even though bitcoin has been good to me since 2016, I made the switch and took bitcoin exposure to 0%.
It wasn't obvious. Precious metals hadn't had a major bull market in over a decade, and everyone was squawking about BlackRock and their shiny new $IBIT ETF overtaking $GLD in AUM.
But the signs all pointed to a resurgence in precious metals and commodities over useless digital assets and monkey JPEGs.
Crypto benefited more than gold from 2020 Fed money printing.
Gold will benefit more than crypto from the 2025-26 Fed money printing.
The crypto enthusiasts still don't get it. Like generals fighting the last war, they believe QE = instant riches just because it happened before.
Tether now holds more gold than bitcoin. Smart money is making the switch, the dumb money will follow in 2-3 years, buying the blow-off top in precious metals stocks.
Credits to Sam Gatlin for the chart.
December 18, 2025
After the 2008 crisis, shipping companies continued to build new vessels and created a supply glut, which led to multiple bankruptcies over the next 5 years.
The ships did not disappear, but the companies which owned them did.
Similarly, the data centers won't disappear when the AI bubble fully deflates, but the stock prices of companies like $CRWV and $IREN will never recover.
December 21, 2025
The spike in allocation from 2007 coincided with recession, ZIRP, and Europe pushing the envelope with negative interest rates.
With Morgan Stanley calling for replacing the 60/40 portfolio with 60/20/20, adding gold in there for 20%, the shift out of bonds should accelerate.
Who will buy the bonds? That's the job of the money printers. QE infinity has begun.
December 22, 2025
The S&P 500 should be renamed the S&P 30 + A Long Tail.
Silver going parabolic
69 with a silver lining for Christmas.
December 28, 2025
Asset allocation drives returns
In 2023 & 2024, I had more exposure to crypto than metals. In 2025, I had heavy exposure to metals and zero to crypto. I reckon the same will be true next year.
Asset allocation drives returns. Everything else comes later.
Crypto is done, but for most crypto guys it is part of their identity. They won't let go until it is too late.
December 29, 2025
A bull market doesn't end when no one is buying. Short positions are always unwound when a sleepy market wakes up.
Precious metals are still climbing the Wall of Worry phase.
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Good Trading!
Kashyap
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