If the yen gets past this level comfortably, it is smooth sailing all the way up to 400. The savings of Mr. and Mrs. Watanabe will end up worthless, but at least the Nikkei will go up every day and the carry traders will make a killing.

January 15, 2026

Bitcoin miner turned AI bubble co Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE) expands into Paraguay.

Its peer Bitfarms (BITF), which has taken its free cash flow from Quebec and burnt it all in Argentina and Paraguay, is finally exiting the money losing business.

Two different approaches. Two stocks to avoid.

When sanctions bite

The first shot was fired in 2022, when the US, UK and EU seized the private wealth of Russian citizens.

Now they are seizing the private wealth of American citizens with impunity.

If you as a non-US citizen or resident hold more than $60K in US assets, the IRS can take up to 40% of your wealth when you die.

This is what an empire in its death throes looks like.

Indians save in gold

I started buying gold and silver in 2014. Under pressure from the central bank and government, banks had stopped selling investment-grade gold. I bought mine directly from the refinery, which was shadow banned but not illegal.

How much wealthier would India be if the government didn't stand in the way of its citizens?

Despite the government's best efforts, Indians continue to favor gold and silver.

January 16, 2026

CoreWeave

Coreweave (CRWV) - A turd with good technicals is still a turd.

This company lost $770 mn on $3.6 bn in revenue and had to raise $2.25 bn in debt just to keep going. The fair value of the stock is zero.

Evidence of stagflation

The bond market now cares more about inflation than Fed rate cuts. The Fed can take rates back to zero, but the bond market will not follow the Fed’s cue.

This is what stagflation looks like.

Political risk alert: Ghana

January 17, 2026

Exploration stocks are the new crypto

Forget crypto. If you have the risk tolerance to speculate, focus on exploration stocks.

In 2021, I made bank on the bitcoin miners and pretty much top ticked that cycle.

In 2022, I started buying bitcoin at $17k, $2k before the FTX bottom.

In 2023, I made a small(ish) bet on Solana and then pyramided it into a big score.

In 2024, I sold all my cryptos and pivoted to Paxgold.

In 2025, I bought more gold and mining stocks.

You can do very well being in the right place at the right time, but that's not repeatable. Rotating into and out of asset classes and playing the long-term trend is absolutely repeatable.

The next bull market might be in Chinese bank stocks and I'll have no qualms about going for it.

My weekend advice for new traders:

Don't get hung up on whatever made/ lost money for you
A strong trend makes up for a lot of mistakes. If you messed up, find the next trend
Never make a trade a part of your identity. If you're anti-fiat, anti-silver, etc you're only shutting out opportunities that want to find you

January 19, 2026

Bullish news for those expecting a recovery in dry bulk rates $BDRY

25% allocation to gold?

A $1.4 billion family office is allocating 25% to gold.

Yields Spiking

First the 10Y and now the 30Y. This is why Trump is distracting the media with his warmongering.

50% of outstanding US public debt matures in less than a year. The Fed is going to end up fighting the market, and the market will win.

Don't be Toby

You know the bitcoin bugs are miserable when they post incessantly about gold and silver.

I witnessed the same distress from gold bugs during the 2015-18 period.

The market cycles. It doesn't care about your savior complex. If you've made your money in crypto, just take the win and move on.

Don't be Toby.

January 20, 2026

Is Block the next GE Capital?

Block (XYZ) (market cap: $38.9 billion) announced that it has provided >$200 billion in credit, of which its own financial arm has originated $20 billion.

The loans are made to riskier borrowers the banks don't lend to, but not to worry - the loss rates are on par with banks.

This has the makings of another GE Capital. The market has noticed.

Block shares are down 76% from their peak and down another 3% pre-market on this news.

Natural gas

While all eyes are on gold and oil, natural gas is up 27.2% today.

Yields are a harbinger of private credit's woes

Clean breakout in US 10 year yields. Private equity, which is basically leveraged credit, is going to have a very tough year.

January 21, 2026

The widow maker trade continues to do what it does best.

Pour one out for all the James Cordiers caught on the short side of this beast.

January 26, 2026

The Golden Age of Fraud

Nvidia (NVDA) is burning another $2 billion on CoreWeave (CRWV) just to keep the flywheel turning.

The Golden Age of Fraud continues to deliver more brazen fraud.

January 28, 2026

When will the dollar index recover? How about never.

The world doesn't want to finance America's addiction to debt and receive Trump's threats in return.

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Good Trading!

Kashyap

hello@kashyapsriram.com

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