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Monthly rollup | November 2023

Stocks Mentioned: Costamare (CMRE), Homebuilders ETF (XHB), Century Plyboards India (NSE: CENTURYPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM), Gladstone Land (LAND), Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW), EuroDry Ltd (EDRY)

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November 01 2023

Sell Costamare (CMRE)

Adjusted EPS of 46 cents missed consensus estimate of 66 cents. Volumes came back, but in the wrong direction. The advantage of taking trades like this on a low vol stock is that guessing wrong has limited downside.

Strong rebound in homebuilders (XHB). Best performing sector today.

November 09 2023

Sell Century Plyboards India (NSE: CENTURYPL)

This has been an incredible run. But now that I'm getting settled with life in the UAE, I no longer track Indian markets. I have been buying timber and forestry stocks in the US and Canada, and I still believe in the long-term bull case for lumber. This sell reco is just me cleaning up open trades to better align with what I'm doing with my own money.

Nvidia (NVDA) is back at the same price as when I made this post. After putting in a head and shoulders top. After the CoreWeave story broke and their round tripping of revenue has become common knowledge. If you're not short this stock already, you should be. The 13F filings next week will reveal that the big institutions manipulating the share price exited. The earnings release on 21st, and the quarterly filing a few days after that, will shed further light on the brazen accounting tricks and share buybacks. When this breaks, this stock will gap fill back to $300 in a jiffy.

I'm as convinced as ever on this short trade. It's not every day you experience an Enron/ Lehman moment.

November 10 2023

Short Broadcom (AVGO)

The post on September 12th explains the reasoning. We may end up top ticking it.

November 14 2023

The November 1 FOMC press conference was a game changer for markets. Powell came out and outright said the Fed will tolerate 3% inflation in 2024 and slightly above 2% in 2025. The Fed is done trying to pay lip service to fighting inflation.

Inflation is going to compound and only get worse for middle class Americans as wages have not kept up with actual price rises - and that's using data from a government agency that changes its methodology often, in order to hide the actual change in CPI.

Strangely, the Fed saying they are done fighting inflation was taken by the markets as a signal to buy the Magnificent 7 and Big Tech again. When the right move would have been to buy hard assets. The last two weeks has seen the markets do the exact opposite of the right thing. I expect that will change within the course of this month. Here's what I'm expecting:

  • Today's CPI reading will show that inflation is making a comeback. Good news for commodity producers, bad news for big tech.

  • 13F filings tomorrow will show that the institutions have trimmed or eliminated their holdings in the AI bubble stocks.

  • Nvidia earnings on the 21st will reveal the emperor has no clothes. The company will be done buying back stock once they report earnings, which should make for an excellent entry for a big short. If the earnings release doesn't pop the tech bubble, the 10-Q filing revealing their incestuous deal with CoreWeave and their creative accounting should do the trick.

Once the Nvidia bubble goes bust, capital will come back to the inflation trade, squeezing the crude oil shorts and getting the bull market in energy going.

If I get this wrong over the course of this week and the next, I'll change my trading plan. A new moon cycle began on Monday (13th), which to me is a sign to watch for a trend change. The catalysts are lining up perfectly in accordance with that.

I have been accumulating value stocks on a near daily basis. I'll put up something on that when I get the time.

CPI rose 3.2% yoy. Core inflation rose 4%. The sharp drop in energy prices yoy (-4.5%) is masking the stickiness of inflation. As an oil bull, I don't see that lasting.

November 15 2023

November 17 2023

Buy Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)

We want exposure to the agriculture supply chain, now that the Fed has given up on its rate hike campaign and decided to let inflation run hot. ADM has a 10.3 PE and is selling at 1.6x book value. The stock has put in a triple bottom. The lower peaks imply volatility has been sucked out on the long side, which can also be seen in the declining weekly ATR. The daily chart looks constructive as well, and a move above $75 should confirm the bottom is in.

If I'm right about the inflation trade resuming, this is a low-risk way to profit from the trend.

November 18 2023

Why did CPI rise only 3.2%, you ask? Well, the Bureau of Lying Statisticians decided your premiums are now back to 2018 levels. Just as they will one day decide you get your protein from crickets and bugs rather than steak and poultry.

November 21 2023

Buy Gladstone Land (LAND)

Gladstone is a farmland REIT. NAV per share of $20.33 as of Q3. Share price of $14.34 as of yesterday. NAV fluctuates with farm values, but as you all know, I'm bullish on inflation and by extension, farmland and agriculture.

The chart doesn't look pretty. That's always the case when you buy value rather than momentum. Expect this to take 1-2 years to play out and size accordingly.

From the company presentation

Buy Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) now at ~$4.16

November 28 2023

Band squeeze breakouts are one of the most reliable technical indicators. EDRY

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