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Lending Conviction
What are you buying that milkshake for? Clayton Christensen, author of The Innovator’s Dilemma, introduced the Job To Be Done approach to product marketing. The core idea was that people don’t buy products, they hire them for a specific purpose. A milkshake bought at a diner at 9 am substitutes for breakfast during a long commute. It needs to be thick so the driver can take his time with it. A milkshake purchased with lunch serves a totally different purpose. In Marketing 101
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14 hours ago2 min read
Anatomy of a 3x: Loncor Gold
I bought a DRC gold explorer nobody wanted at 47 cents. Eleven months later, it was acquired for C$1.38. Here's the full story - including the part where I almost sold. Every November and December, Canadian and US investors dump their losers to book tax losses. Volume dries up, bids disappear, and good small-cap stocks go on sale for no fundamental reason. I build my watchlist all year and go shopping in tax-loss season. It's a seasonal edge that's too small and too illiquid
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Jul 42 min read
Meet RMP, the New Name for Endless QE
"I think shrinking the [Fed] balance sheet is the wrong objective." - Fed governor Barr. With inflation through the roof, inflation expectations sky high, and the economy excluding AI in a recession, the Fed is printing money. But it's not QE anymore - the new name is RMP. Last week, Fed governor Michael Barr gave a speech defending Fed money printing. Inflation, as measured by CPI, is already higher than the Fed funds rate. The Fed is cutting rates. But that's not enough. As
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May 194 min read
The Permanent Portfolio
The outdated 60/40 portfolio fails in modern markets, as bonds no longer provide stability. A better approach is this Permanent Portfolio.
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Mar 26, 20257 min read
Trump, Hoover, and the Roaring ‘20s Deja vu
This post compares Trump’s policies to the 1920s, forecasting shifts in the global economic landscape.
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Jan 22, 20258 min read
Preparing for a Minsky Moment
My first degree was in engineering. I grew up liking the natural sciences and thought the social sciences were full of crap – too touchy feely and unobjective. That changed when I started preparing for business school and my then mentor suggested I read Ayn Rand. From there I discovered Ludwig von Mises, the Austrian school of economics, and realized economics was as objective as a natural science when seen through the Austrian lens. Once I read Murray Rothbard’s Man, Economy
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Dec 16, 20247 min read
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